In earlier lessons, you learned:
- What technical analysis is
- How candlestick patterns show market psychology
- How indicators help quantify decisions
Now it’s time to put everything together into a simple, practical trading system based on Moving Average Crossovers.
This is one of the world’s most popular beginner-friendly trading methods. It’s simple, objective, and helps you understand how traders turn indicators into actual buy–sell decisions.
🔥 1. The Basic Idea
We use two Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- 50-EMA → faster (reacts quickly to price)
- 100-EMA → slower (reacts slowly)
These two lines help you spot when a trend is beginning or ending.
🔥 2. The Trading Rules
✔ BUY (Go Long)
When:
👉 50-EMA crosses ABOVE the 100-EMA
This tells you the short-term trend has turned bullish.
✔ SELL / EXIT
When:
👉 50-EMA crosses BELOW the 100-EMA
This tells you the trend has weakened and may turn bearish.
These two moments are called:
- Cross-over → bullish
- Cross-under → bearish
🔥 3. How It Looks on a Chart
Let’s take Gujarat Gas (Daily chart) as an example:
- Yellow Line = 100-EMA (slow)
- White Line = 50-EMA (fast)
When the market was falling, the yellow EMA stayed above the white EMA — bearish.
Then at one point:
➤ 50-EMA crossed above 100-EMA → BUY signal
From there, the trend turned strongly upward.
As long as the white EMA stayed above the yellow EMA, you would stay in the trade.
In this particular case, the entry area was around ₹148, and the price later went above ₹770 — a huge trend-capturing move.
Important:
This is not typical every time, but such trades are what make trend systems profitable.
🔥 4. A More Realistic Example
Voltas chart:
- Buy when white crosses above yellow → around ₹625
- Exit when white crosses below yellow → around ₹594
This is a small loss — perfectly normal.
Trend-following systems always have multiple small losses and few big winners.
🔥 5. Why Trend Systems Work
Trend-following =
📌 Many small losses
📌 Few very large wins
When a clear trend begins, the system keeps you inside the trade for a long time.
This is the same logic used by legendary traders like Richard Dennis and Ed Seykota.
🔥 6. The Biggest Problem: Sideways Markets
When the market goes sideways:
- EMAs cross again and again
- You get false signals
- Small losses occur repeatedly
Example: ITC (2015)
- Buy
- Exit immediately
- Buy again
- Exit again
- No trend at all
- Multiple whipsaws
This is the key weakness of all trend-following strategies.
🔥 7. Changing the EMA Combination
You can customize the moving average pair based on your trading style:
Short-term trading
- 9 EMA & 21 EMA
- Signals come fast
- More whipsaws
- Small, frequent trades
Medium-term trading
- 25 EMA & 50 EMA
- Trades last a few weeks
Long-term trend trading
- 50 EMA & 100 EMA
- 100 EMA & 200 EMA
- Trades last months or even years
Choose the combination that matches:
✔ Your personality
✔ Your patience
✔ Your risk appetite
🔥 8. Key Advantages
- Completely rule-based
- Removes emotions from decisions
- Easy to backtest
- Simple to understand
- Helps you ride big trends
🔥 9. Key Disadvantages
- Fails in sideways markets
- Gives delayed entries
- Gives delayed exits
- Requires strong discipline
⭐ Final Summary of the System
| Condition | Action |
|---|---|
| 50-EMA crosses above 100-EMA | BUY / Enter Long |
| Stay in trade while 50-EMA stays above 100-EMA | Hold |
| 50-EMA crosses below 100-EMA | SELL / Exit |
It is a trend-following system — you must accept many small losses and a few very big wins.
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